start

xw =

    0.0022
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0013
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0022
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0013
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0022
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0012
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0012
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0006
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0012
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0013
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0013
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0014
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0014
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0014
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0014
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0014
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001

mean growth 1316

mean_growth_1316 =

    0.0364

mean growth 0712

mean_growth_0712 =

   -0.0076

change in potential growth from 2012Q4 to 2016Q3

ans =

    0.0159

average GDP growth 2013 -- 2016 minus 2007 -- 2012 

ans =

    0.0440

GDP growth 2008

Yg2008 =

   -0.0212

GDP growth 2009

Yg2009 =

   -0.0435

GDP growth 2010

Yg2010 =

   -0.0093

average GDP growth 2008 -- 2010

ans =

   -0.0247

severity of recession

ans =

   -0.0367

average GDP growth 2010 -- 2012

ans =

    0.0023

(mean(y_tg(1:12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0068

average revision: (mean(y_tg(12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0126

GY2009

GY2009 =

    0.2082

GY2010

GY2010 =

    0.2044

GY2011

GY2011 =

    0.1985

GY2012

GY2012 =

    0.1960

change in potential growth from 2009Q4 to 2010Q4

ans =

   -0.0032

change in G

ans =

   -0.0437

GY2010-GY2009

ans =

   -0.0038

GY2011-GY2009

ans =

   -0.0097

GY2012-GY2009

ans =

   -0.0122

RE model@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

xw_RE =

    0.0022
    0.2679
    0.0098

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0045    0.0044    0.0044         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0045    0.0088    0.0086         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0045    0.0132    0.0126         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0060    0.0174    0.0165         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0060    0.0232    0.0218         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0060    0.0288    0.0268         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0060    0.0344    0.0317         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0399    0.0364         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0394    0.0351         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0389    0.0338         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0384    0.0326         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0379    0.0314         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0374    0.0302         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0370    0.0290         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0365    0.0279         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0361    0.0268         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0356    0.0257         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0352    0.0246         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0347    0.0235         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0343    0.0225         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0339    0.0215         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0335    0.0205         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0330    0.0196         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0326    0.0186         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0322    0.0177         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0318    0.0168         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0314    0.0159         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0310    0.0150         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0307    0.0142         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0303    0.0134         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0299    0.0125         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0295    0.0117         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0292    0.0110         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0288    0.0102         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0284    0.0095         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0281    0.0087         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0277    0.0080         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0274    0.0073         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0270    0.0067         0


hp2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [1 0 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'o'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×56 double]
              YData: [1×56 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hp2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp2', hp2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp2'), end">all properties</a>


ythand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 8.8000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [-15.3407 3.0000 -1.0000]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ythand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand', ythand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand'), end">all properties</a>


ythand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 8.8000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [-15.4512 -1.5000 -1.0000]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ythand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand', ythand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand'), end">all properties</a>

change in output gaps

ans =

   -0.0076

change in debt GDP ratio

ans =

    0.0150

grow_err(6)

ans =

   -0.0114

CAB 2009Q4

ans =

   -0.0108

change in CAB: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0035

change in potential output growth: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.1945

growth_fore_err

growth_fore_err =

   -0.0261


xw =

    0.0022
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0013
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0022
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0013
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0022
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0012
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0012
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0007
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0008
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0009
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0010
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0011
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0012
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0012
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0012
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0012
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0012
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0012
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0012
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001


xw =

    0.0021
    0.2679
    0.0098


xb =

    0.0001
   -0.0217
    0.9884


xR =

    0.0012
   -0.4190
   -0.0153


xk =

    0.0000
    0.9875
    0.0001

mean growth 1316

mean_growth_1316 =

    0.0186

mean growth 0712

mean_growth_0712 =

   6.6382e-05

change in potential growth from 2012Q4 to 2016Q3

ans =

    0.0052

average GDP growth 2013 -- 2016 minus 2007 -- 2012 

ans =

    0.0185

GDP growth 2008

Yg2008 =

   -0.0212

GDP growth 2009

Yg2009 =

   -0.0420

GDP growth 2010

Yg2010 =

    0.0038

average GDP growth 2008 -- 2010

ans =

   -0.0198

severity of recession

ans =

   -0.0318

average GDP growth 2010 -- 2012

ans =

    0.0172

(mean(y_tg(1:12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0066

average revision: (mean(y_tg(12)) - log(gamma))*4

ans =

   -0.0112

GY2009

GY2009 =

    0.2085

GY2010

GY2010 =

    0.2076

GY2011

GY2011 =

    0.2075

GY2012

GY2012 =

    0.2076

change in potential growth from 2009Q4 to 2010Q4

ans =

   -0.0018

change in G

ans =

   -0.0216

GY2010-GY2009

ans =

  -8.5949e-04

GY2011-GY2009

ans =

  -9.5994e-04

GY2012-GY2009

ans =

  -8.8233e-04

RE model@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@

xw_RE =

    0.0022
    0.2679
    0.0098

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0045    0.0044    0.0044         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0045    0.0088    0.0086         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0045    0.0132    0.0126         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0060    0.0174    0.0165         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0060    0.0232    0.0218         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0060    0.0288    0.0268         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

   -0.0060    0.0344    0.0317         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0399    0.0364         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0394    0.0351         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0389    0.0338         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0384    0.0326         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0379    0.0314         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0374    0.0302         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0370    0.0290         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0365    0.0279         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0361    0.0268         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0356    0.0257         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0352    0.0246         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0347    0.0235         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0343    0.0225         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0339    0.0215         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0335    0.0205         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0330    0.0196         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0326    0.0186         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0322    0.0177         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0318    0.0168         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0314    0.0159         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0310    0.0150         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0307    0.0142         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0303    0.0134         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0299    0.0125         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0295    0.0117         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0292    0.0110         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0288    0.0102         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0284    0.0095         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0281    0.0087         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0277    0.0080         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0274    0.0073         0

ini_con_RE

ini_con_RE =

         0    0.0270    0.0067         0

+++++++++++++++++++multiplier++++++++++++++++

multiplier =

  Columns 1 through 13

         0         0         0         0         0         0         0         0    1.4377    1.6091    1.6899    1.7353    1.7736

  Columns 14 through 26

    1.8046    1.8347    1.8683    1.9044    1.9430    1.9821    2.0179    2.0464    2.0649    2.0709    2.0638    2.0466    2.0254

  Columns 27 through 39

    2.0071    1.9968    1.9962    2.0032    2.0133    2.0149    2.0000    1.9750    1.9438    1.9072    1.8660    1.8334    1.7985

  Column 40

    1.7623


multiplier1 =

  Columns 1 through 13

         0         0         0         0         0         0         0         0    3.5134    3.4822    3.4179    3.3332    3.2424

  Columns 14 through 26

    3.1479    3.0570    2.9777    2.9134    2.8664    2.8357    2.8172    2.8053    2.7950    2.7814    2.7605    2.7319    2.6983

  Columns 27 through 39

    2.6648    2.6371    2.6192    2.6120    2.6140    2.6161    2.6102    2.5994    2.5856    2.5684    2.5471    2.5323    2.5165

  Column 40

    2.5001


multiplier_RE =

  Columns 1 through 21

     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN

  Columns 22 through 40

   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN   NaN


multiplier_RE1 =

  Columns 1 through 13

         0         0         0         0         0         0         0         0    1.6703    1.6748    1.6794    1.6840    1.6888

  Columns 14 through 26

    1.6936    1.6985    1.7034    1.7085    1.7136    1.7189    1.7242    1.7296    1.7351    1.7408    1.7465    1.7523    1.7582

  Columns 27 through 39

    1.7642    1.7704    1.7766    1.7830    1.7895    1.7961    1.8029    1.8098    1.8168    1.8239    1.8312    1.8386    1.8462

  Column 40

    1.8540


years =

        2008        2009        2010        2011        2012        2013        2014        2015        2016        2017


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 1 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733682 734047 734412 734777 735143 735508]
              YData: [-2.2504 -8.9325 -8.4459 -9.0693 -13.0883 -16.0365]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>


y_with =

  Columns 1 through 13

   -0.4897   -1.2898   -2.2615   -3.3185   -4.5715   -5.9286   -7.3487   -8.8714   -9.8476  -10.4079  -10.7369  -11.0056  -11.2841

  Columns 14 through 26

  -11.6162  -12.0048  -12.3782  -12.6385  -12.6706  -12.3844  -11.7772  -10.9445  -10.0325   -9.2107   -8.6341   -8.3727   -8.3717

  Columns 27 through 39

   -8.4604   -8.3988   -7.9614   -7.0317   -5.6583   -4.2125   -3.1620   -2.5357   -2.1749   -2.0336   -2.1229   -2.0912   -1.9913

  Column 40

   -1.9539


ylhand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 8.8000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [7.3318e+05 -10.0000 -1.0000]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ylhand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ylhand', ylhand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ylhand'), end">all properties</a>

average output loss over three years

ans =

   -2.8898

cumulative output loss over six years

ans =

  -15.5627


h2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2', h2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2'), end">all properties</a>


h3 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h3', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h3', h3, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h3'), end">all properties</a>


h3 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h3', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h3', h3, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h3'), end">all properties</a>


h4 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h4', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h4', h4, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h4'), end">all properties</a>


h4 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h4', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h4', h4, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h4'), end">all properties</a>


h5 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h5', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h5', h5, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h5'), end">all properties</a>


hi1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hi1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hi1', hi1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hi1'), end">all properties</a>


hi1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hi1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hi1', hi1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hi1'), end">all properties</a>


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 1 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [734412 734777 735143 735508]
              YData: [0 0 0 0]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>

g_with1

g_with1 =

  Columns 1 through 13

   -0.0107   -0.0280   -0.0493   -0.0731   -0.1021   -0.1340   -0.1866   -0.2997   -0.4214   -0.4935   -0.6038   -0.7494   -0.9087

  Columns 14 through 26

   -1.0974   -1.2892   -1.4429   -1.5373   -1.5372   -1.4415   -1.2853   -1.1207   -0.9866   -0.9268   -0.9624   -1.0697   -1.1923

  Columns 27 through 39

   -1.2567   -1.1955   -0.9772   -0.6260   -0.2125    0.0399    0.0618    0.0764    0.0864    0.0509   -0.0389    0.1005    0.1056

  Column 40

    0.1096


h2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2', h2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2'), end">all properties</a>


h2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '--'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2', h2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h2'), end">all properties</a>


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 1 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [734047 734412 734777 735143 735508 735873 736238 736604]
              YData: [0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>


hp = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 0 1]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'o'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hp', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp', hp, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp'), end">all properties</a>


hpp = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [1 0 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'diamond'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hpp', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hpp', hpp, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hpp'), end">all properties</a>


y2hand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 9.9000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [7.3294e+05 0.3660 -1.0000]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('y2hand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('y2hand', y2hand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('y2hand'), end">all properties</a>


hpp1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [1 0 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'diamond'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×40 double]
              YData: [1×40 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hpp1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hpp1', hpp1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hpp1'), end">all properties</a>


y3hand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 9.9000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [7.3306e+05 -0.4513 -1]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('y3hand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('y3hand', y3hand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('y3hand'), end">all properties</a>


h1 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [0 1 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'none'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [733682 734047 734412 734777 735143 735508]
              YData: [0 0 0 0 0 0]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('h1', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1', h1, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('h1'), end">all properties</a>


hp2 = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line" style="font-weight:bold">Line</a> with properties:

              Color: [1 0 0]
          LineStyle: '-'
          LineWidth: 0.5000
             Marker: 'o'
         MarkerSize: 6
    MarkerFaceColor: 'none'
              XData: [1×56 double]
              YData: [1×56 double]
              ZData: [1×0 double]

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('hp2', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp2', hp2, 'matlab.graphics.chart.primitive.Line'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('hp2'), end">all properties</a>


ythand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 8.8000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [-15.3407 2.3336 -1.0000]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ythand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand', ythand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand'), end">all properties</a>


ythand = 

  <a href="matlab:helpPopup matlab.graphics.primitive.Text" style="font-weight:bold">Text</a> with properties:

                 String: ''
               FontSize: 8.8000
             FontWeight: 'normal'
               FontName: 'Helvetica'
                  Color: [0.1500 0.1500 0.1500]
    HorizontalAlignment: 'center'
               Position: [-15.4512 -1.5000 -1.0000]
                  Units: 'data'

  Show <a href="matlab:if exist('ythand', 'var'), matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand', ythand, 'matlab.graphics.primitive.Text'), else, matlab.graphics.internal.getForDisplay('ythand'), end">all properties</a>

change in output gaps

ans =

   -0.0076

change in debt GDP ratio

ans =

    0.0150

grow_err(6)

ans =

   -0.0114

CAB 2009Q4

ans =

   -0.0108

change in CAB: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.0035

change in potential output growth: 2009Q4 -- 2012Q4

ans =

   -0.1945

growth_fore_err

growth_fore_err =

    0.0185

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
RE solution
ordering: rk wage output mp hours cons invst caput cap gama
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
